House Prices in ASEAN+3: Recent Trends and Inter-Dependence

64 Pages Posted: 4 Nov 2009  

Dongchul Cho

KDI School of Public Policy and Management

Date Written: November 1, 2009

Abstract

This study analyzes house price movements in the ASEAN+3 countries. Though there exist many reservations due to the serious limitations in the data quality and availability, the primary results appear to imply that the possibility of collapse in the ASEAN+3 region’s house prices is smaller than those in the U.S. and European countries. However, it seems also legitimate to call policy-makers’ attention on house prices in the ASEAN+3 region. Although relatively less serious than in the U.S. and European countries, the absolute magnitudes of house price appreciations in the region were substantial, and the current turmoil in housing markets in the U.S. and European countries is very likely to generate global recession, which will indirectly affect the region’s house prices through lowering growth rates of the member countries. Once house prices begin to decline in one of the countries, house prices in neighbor countries will be likely to be affected. If the possibility of house price corrections needs to be reduced, a traditional package of boosting policies - lowering interest rates and increasing government spending - seems to be warranted.

Keywords: House Price, Global Recession, Contagion

JEL Classification: F42, F41, E32

Suggested Citation

Cho, Dongchul, House Prices in ASEAN+3: Recent Trends and Inter-Dependence (November 1, 2009). KDI School of Pub Policy & Management Paper No. 09-12. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1498128 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1498128

Dongchul Cho (Contact Author)

KDI School of Public Policy and Management ( email )

P.O. Box 184
Seoul, 130-868
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

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