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Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

36 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016  

S. Amer Ahmed

World Bank

Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Stanford University

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis; Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP)

David B. Lobell

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Navin Ramankutty

McGill University

Ana R. Rios

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Pedram Rowhani

McGill University

Date Written: November 1, 2009

Abstract

Climate models generally indicate that climate volatility may rise in the future, severely affecting agricultural productivity through greater frequency of yield-diminishing climate extremes, such as droughts. For Tanzania, where agricultural production is sensitive to climate, changes in climate volatility could have significant implications for poverty. This study assesses the vulnerability of Tanzania’s population to poverty to changes in climate variability between the late 20th century and early this century. Future climatescenarios with the largest increases in climate volatility are projected to make Tanzanians increasingly vulnerable to poverty through its impacts on the production of staple grains, with as many as 90,000 additional people, representing 0.26 percent of the population, entering poverty in the median case. Extreme poverty-increasing outcomes are also found to be greater in the future under certain climate scenarios. In the 20th century, the greatest predicted increase in poverty was equal to 880,000 people, while in the 21st century, the highest possible poverty increase was equal to 1.17 million people (approximately 3.4 percent of the population). The results suggest that the potential impacts of changes in climate volatility and climate extremes can be significant for poverty in Sub-Saharan African countries like Tanzania.

Keywords: Rural Poverty Reduction, Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases, Science of Climate Change, Regional Economic Development, Climate Change Economics

Suggested Citation

Ahmed, S. Amer and Diffenbaugh, Noah S. and Hertel, Thomas W. and Lobell, David B. and Ramankutty, Navin and Rios, Ana R. and Rowhani, Pedram, Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania (November 1, 2009). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, Vol. , pp. -, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1503811

S. Amer Ahmed (Contact Author)

World Bank ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

Noah S. Diffenbaugh

Stanford University ( email )

Stanford, CA 94305
United States

Thomas W. Hertel

Purdue University - Center for Global Trade Analysis ( email )

Department of Agricultural Economics
1145 Krannert Building
West Lafayette, IN 47907-1145
United States
765-494-4199 (Phone)
765-494-9176 (Fax)

Center for Robust Decisionmaking on Climate & Energy Policy (RDCEP) ( email )

5735 S. Ellis Street
Chicago, IL 60637
United States

David B. Lobell

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory ( email )

P.O. Box 808
Livermore, CA 94551
United States

Navin Ramankutty

McGill University ( email )

1001 Sherbrooke St. W
Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5
Canada

Ana Rios

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

Pedram Rowhani

McGill University ( email )

1001 Sherbrooke St. W
Montreal, Quebec H3A 1G5
Canada

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