War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis

39 Pages Posted: 16 Nov 2009 Last revised: 15 Apr 2010

See all articles by Mauricio Prado

Mauricio Prado

Copenhagen Business School

Mark Dincecco

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

Date Written: August 27, 2009

Abstract

This paper examines the links between warfare, democracy, and government size over the long run, from the early nineteenth century to the present. We assemble new time series for government size for eight European countries. We then examine individual data trends using a combination of narrative and statistical techniques. Our key methodological contribution is to employ structural breaks tests, which assume no a priori knowledge of major turning points in the time series, but let the data ``speak" for themselves. Our results indicate that warfare, and not franchise extension, is the key driver of long-run increases in government size.

Keywords: wars, voting franchise, government size, structural breaks tests, European history

JEL Classification: C19, P16, H50, N4

Suggested Citation

Prado, Mauricio and Dincecco, Mark, War, Democracy, and Government Size Over the Long Run: A Structural Breaks Analysis (August 27, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1506887 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1506887

Mauricio Prado

Copenhagen Business School ( email )

Porcelaenshaven 16A
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HOME PAGE: http://sf.cbs.dk/prado

Mark Dincecco (Contact Author)

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor ( email )

HOME PAGE: http://sites.google.com/umich.edu/dincecco

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