47 Pages Posted: 17 Nov 2009
Date Written: October 2009
Several papers that make forecasts about the long-term impact of the current financial crisis rely on models in which there is only one type of financial crisis. These models tend to predict that the current crisis will have long lasting negative effects on economic growth. This paper points out the deficiency in this approach by analyzing the ability of "one-type-shock" models to correctly forecast the recovery from past economic downturns. It is shown that these models often overestimate the long-run impact of recessions and that slightly richer models that allow the effects of recessions to be both persistent and transitory predict recoveries much better.
Keywords: financial crisis, forecasting, great recession, unit root
JEL Classification: C51, C53, E37
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Cai, Xiaoming and den Haan, Wouter J., Predicting Recoveries and the Importance of Using Enough Information (October 2009). CEPR Discussion Paper No. DP7508. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1507505
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