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Trade, Exchange Rate Exposure, and the Currency Composition of Debt

48 Pages Posted: 19 Nov 2009 Last revised: 26 Mar 2013

Michael Michaux

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business

Date Written: December 1, 2012

Abstract

This paper develops a quantitative structural model of trade and the currency composition of debt for firms in a small open economy with exchange rate risk. Monopolistic competition in the product market generates exchange rate exposure for all firms - exporting and local. Due to financial frictions, firms optimally issue foreign debt as a hedge against this exposure. The model is estimated using a firm level dataset of traded Mexican firms. The estimated model fits the data well and is able to rationalize the observed magnitude of foreign debt issued by both local and exporting firms in Mexico. Counterfactual experiments are used to quantify the consequences of cheap foreign debt and high costs of equity issuance on debt and default policies of firms.

Keywords: Trade, exchange rate exposure, capital structure, currency composition of debt, default risk, hedging

JEL Classification: G30, G32

Suggested Citation

Michaux, Michael, Trade, Exchange Rate Exposure, and the Currency Composition of Debt (December 1, 2012). AFA 2011 Denver Meetings Paper. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1509779 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1509779

Michael Michaux (Contact Author)

University of Southern California - Marshall School of Business ( email )

Marshall School of Business, FBE
3670 Trousdale Parkway, BRI-308
Los Angeles, CA 90089
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www-bcf.usc.edu/~michaux/

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