An Almost-Too-Late Warning Mechanism for Currency Crises

19 Pages Posted: 1 Dec 2009

See all articles by Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economic Theory, Economic Policy and Economic History

Tomas Slacik

Austrian National Bank - Foreign Research Division

Date Written: 0000

Abstract

We propose exploiting the term structure of relative interest rates to obtain estimates of changes in the timing of a currency crisis as perceived by market participants. Our indicator can be used to evaluate the relative probability of a crisis occurring in one week as compared to a crisis happening after one week but in less than a month. We give empirical evidence that the indicator performs well for two important currency crises in Eastern Europe: the crisis in the Czech Republic in 1997 and the Russian crisis in 1998.

Suggested Citation

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús and Slacik, Tomas, An Almost-Too-Late Warning Mechanism for Currency Crises (0000). Economics of Transition, Vol. 18, Issue 1, pp. 123-141, January 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1514074 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0351.2009.00369.x

Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (Contact Author)

University of Innsbruck - Department of Economic Theory, Economic Policy and Economic History ( email )

Universitaetsstrasse 15
Innsbruck, A - 6020
Austria

Tomas Slacik

Austrian National Bank - Foreign Research Division ( email )

Otto-Wagner-Platz 3
Vienna, A-1011
Austria

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