Convergence Across Industrialized Countries (1890-1989): New Results Using Time Series Methods

Abstract

Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Kalman filter convergence tests are applied to annual GDPs per head to 16 industrialized countries from 1890 to 1989. Results favor convergence towards the U.S. with a structural break following the Second World War. Estimates suggest that steady-states were higher after the war and that speeds of convergence are different across countries. The Kalman filter method dismissed the no-convergence hypothesis more often than its ADF counterpart. This could explain the apparent contradiction in earlier empirical work on similar data sets (cross-section methods tended to favor convergence while time series methods were unable to dismiss the no-convergence hypothesis.)

JEL Classification: C22, O47, O57