Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets

26 Pages Posted: 11 Dec 2009 Last revised: 20 May 2010

See all articles by Natalia Ponomareva

Natalia Ponomareva

Macquarie University - Division of Economic and Financial Studies; Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School

Jeffrey Sheen

Macquarie University; Financial Research Network (FIRN); Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: December 7, 2009

Abstract

Using a four-state model, we show that Australian labour markets became more flexible after 1980, but most gains occurred before 1993. We find that the responses of the transition probabilities to the phases of the business cycle are gender-dependent. For men, job-losing probabilities are counter-cyclical, but not job-finding. For women the cycle has significant positive effects on job-finding, which are amplified in recessions. Job-losing and job-finding are both important for the evolution of unemployment over the whole business cycle, but during recessions, job-finding seems to be a bigger issue for women. Each transition probability explains only a small proportion of participation rates.

Keywords: Labour market flows, unemployment, transition probabilities, business cycles

JEL Classification: E24, E32

Suggested Citation

Ponomareva, Natalia and Sheen, Jeffrey, Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets (December 7, 2009). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1519832 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1519832

Natalia Ponomareva

Macquarie University - Division of Economic and Financial Studies ( email )

United States

Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School ( email )

New South Wales 2109
Australia

Jeffrey Sheen (Contact Author)

Macquarie University ( email )

Department of Economics
Macquarie University
Sydney, NSW 2109
Australia
+61 2 9850 7287 (Phone)
+61 2 9850 8324 (Fax)

Financial Research Network (FIRN) ( email )

C/- University of Queensland Business School
St Lucia, 4071 Brisbane
Queensland
Australia

Macquarie University, Macquarie Business School ( email )

New South Wales 2109
Australia

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