Declining Return Migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s Recession

31 Pages Posted: 22 Dec 2009 Last revised: 16 Mar 2010

Date Written: February 12, 2010

Abstract

Researchers in the U.S. and Mexico have variously asserted that return migration from the U.S. to Mexico has increased substantially, remained unchanged, or declined slightly in response to the 2007-2009 U.S. recession and global financial crisis. The present study addresses this debate using microdata through mid-2009 from a large-scale, quarterly Mexican household survey, the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE), after first validating the ENOE against return migration estimates from a specialist demographic survey, the 2006 National Survey of Demographic Dynamics (ENADID). No evidence of increased return migration is found. Statistically significant declines in return migration, however, are found between the immediately prerecession 2006/07 year and the 2008/09 recession year, and between the fourth quarter of 2007 and the fourth quarter of 2008 when the global financial crisis had just been triggered.

Suggested Citation

Rendall, Michael S. and Brownell, Peter and Kups, Sarah, Declining Return Migration from the United States to Mexico in the late-2000s Recession (February 12, 2010). RAND Working Paper Series WR- 720-1, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1526711 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1526711

Michael S. Rendall (Contact Author)

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
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Peter Brownell

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Sarah Kups

RAND Corporation ( email )

1776 Main Street
P.O. Box 2138
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

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