Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives

Duke Economics Working Paper No. 99-01

45 Pages Posted: 1 Jul 1999

See all articles by Allen C. Kelley

Allen C. Kelley

Duke University - Department of Economics

Robert M. Schmidt

University of Richmond

Date Written: 1999

Abstract

Building upon recent Barro models that account for the impacts of various economic and political factors conditioning the pace of economic growth, we evaluate the merits of alternative specifications that expose the impacts of demographic change. For a sample of 89 countries, we arrive at the qualified judgment that rapid population growth exerted a fairly strong, adverse impact, on the pace of economic growth over the period 1960-1995. The positive impacts of density, size, and labor force entry were swamped by the costs of rearing children and maintaining an enlarged youth-dependency age structure.

JEL Classification: O11, J1, O4

Suggested Citation

Kelley, Allen C. and Schmidt, Robert M., Economic and Demographic Change: A Synthesis of Models, Findings, and Perspectives (1999). Duke Economics Working Paper No. 99-01, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=152888 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.152888

Allen C. Kelley (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States
919-660-1825 (Phone)
919-490-8995 (Fax)

Robert M. Schmidt

University of Richmond ( email )

Richmond, VA 23173
United States

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