Oilgopoly: A General Equilibrium Model of the Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus

27 Pages Posted: 30 Dec 2009

See all articles by Anton Nakov

Anton Nakov

European Central Bank (ECB); CEPR

Galo Nuno

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: December 30, 2009

Abstract

Saudi Arabia Is the largest player In the world oil market. It maintains ample spare capacity, restricts investment in developing reserves, and its output is negatively correlated with other OPEC producers. While this behavior does not fit into the perfect competition paradigm, we show that it can be rationalized as that of a dominant producer with competitive fringe. We build a quantitative general equilibrium model along these lines which is capable of matching the historical volatility of the oil price, competitive and non-competitive oil output, and of generating the observed comovement among the oil price, oil quantities, and U.S. GDP. We use our framework to answer questions on which available models are silent: (1) What are the proximate determinants of the oil price and how do they vary over the cycle? (2) How large are oil profits and what losses do they imply for oil-importers? (3) What do different fundamental shocks imply for the comovement of oil prices and GDP? (4) What are the general equilibrium effects of taxes on oil consumption or oil production? We find, in particular, that the existence of an oil production distortion does not necessarily justify an oil consumption tax different from zero.

Keywords: Oil Price, Oil Shocks, Dominant F Rm, Competitive Fringe, Pigovian Tax

JEL Classification: D43, E32, E62, Q43

Suggested Citation

Nakov, Anton A. and Nuno, Galo, Oilgopoly: A General Equilibrium Model of the Oil-Macroeconomy Nexus (December 30, 2009). Banco de Espana Working Paper No. 0932, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1529703 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1529703

Anton A. Nakov (Contact Author)

European Central Bank (ECB) ( email )

Sonnemannstrasse 22
Frankfurt am Main, 60314
Germany

CEPR ( email )

London
United Kingdom

Galo Nuno

affiliation not provided to SSRN ( email )

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