On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

Unalmis, Deren; Unalmis, Ibrahim; Unsal, D. Filiz

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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations

IMF Working Paper No. 09/285

29 Pages Posted: 5 Jan 2010

See all articles by Deren Unalmis

Ibrahim Unalmis

Government of the Republic of Turkey - Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey

D. Filiz Unsal

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Date Written: December 2009

Abstract

Analyzing macroeconomic impacts of oil price changes requires first to investigate different sources of these changes and their distinct effects. Kilian (2009) analyzes the effects of an oil supply shock, an aggregate demand shock, and a precautionary oil demand shock. The paper's aim is to model macroeconomic consequences of these shocks within a new Keynesian DSGE framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price changes and their international transmission mechanisms. Our results indicate that different sources of oil price fluctuations bring remarkably diverse outcomes for both economies.

Keywords: Demand, Economic models, External shocks, Fiscal policy, Inflation targeting, Monetary policy, Oil prices, Oil production, Price increases, Productivity, Supply

Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation

Unalmis, Deren and Unalmis, Ibrahim and Unsal, D. Filiz, On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations (December 2009). IMF Working Paper No. 09/285, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1531518