Towards a Better Understanding of Disparities in Scenarios of Decarbonization: Sectorally Explicit Results from the RECIPE Project

25 Pages Posted: 10 Jan 2010 Last revised: 29 Jun 2010

See all articles by Gunnar Luderer

Gunnar Luderer

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK)

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University; CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

Ottmar Edenhofer

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK); Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC); Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin)

Michael Jakob

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Jan Christoph Steckel

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Henri Waisman

Centre International de Recherche sur l’ l'Environnement et le Développement

Date Written: January 5, 2010

Abstract

This paper presents results from a model intercomparison exercise among regionalized global energy-economy models conducted in the context of the RECIPE project. The economic adjustment effects of long-term climate policy aiming at stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 450 ppm are investigated based on the cross-comparison of the intertemporal optimization models REMIND-R and WITCH as well as the recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model IMACLIM-R. The models applied in the project differ in several respects and the comparison exercise tracks differences in the business as usual forecasts as well as in the mitigation scenarios to conceptual differences in the model structures and assumptions. In particular, the models have different representation of the sectoral structure of the energy system. A detailed sectoral analysis conducted as part of this study reveals that the sectoral representation is a crucial determinant of the mitigation strategy and costs. While all models project that the electricity sector can be decarbonized readily, emissions abatement in the non-electric sectors, particularly transport, is much more challenging. Mitigation costs and carbon prices were found to depend strongly on the availability of low-carbon options in the non-electric sectors.

Keywords: Decarbonization, Energy and Climate Policy

JEL Classification: Q48, Q58

Suggested Citation

Luderer, Gunnar and Bosetti, Valentina and Edenhofer, Ottmar and Jakob, Michael and Steckel, Jan and Waisman, Henri, Towards a Better Understanding of Disparities in Scenarios of Decarbonization: Sectorally Explicit Results from the RECIPE Project (January 5, 2010). FEEM Working Paper No. 117.2009; CMCC Research Paper No. 69. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1531671 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1531671

Gunnar Luderer (Contact Author)

Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK) ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Valentina Bosetti

Bocconi University

Via Gobbi 5
Milan, 20136
Italy

CMCC - Euro Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change

via Augusto Imperatore, 16
Lecce, I-73100
Italy

Ottmar Edenhofer

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ( email )

P.O. Box 601203
14412 Potsdam, Brandenburg
Germany

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC)

Torgauer Straße 12-15
Berlin, 10829
Germany

Technische Universität Berlin (TU Berlin)

Straße des 17
Juni 135
Berlin, 10623
Germany

Michael Jakob

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Jan Steckel

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( email )

Telegraphenberg
Potsdam, Brandenburg 14412
Germany

Henri Waisman

Centre International de Recherche sur l’ l'Environnement et le Développement ( email )

Campus du Jardin Tropical
45 bis avenue de la Belle Gabrielle
F94736 Nogent sur Marne Cedex
France

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