The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada: What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?

Abstract

This paper builds a Bayesian VAR estimation model of growth for Canada, by focusing specifically on the role of external and domestic financial indicators, including credit conditions. A variance decomposition shows that financial conditions explain one-third of the total variability in Canada's real GDP growth, although changes in U.S. real GDP growth still account for a larger share of volatility in Canadian growth. A macro-financial conditions index built from the VAR's impulse responses shows that U.S. real GDP growth and lending standards will increasingly bear on Canada's growth, implying that a normalization of the U.S. economic and financial conditions is key for a sustained recovery in Canada.

Keywords: Bank credit, Canada, Credit controls, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Economic models, External sector, Financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Gross domestic product, Monetary policy, Spillovers