Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions

17 Pages Posted: 18 Jan 2010 Last revised: 5 Jul 2010

See all articles by S. Borağan Aruoba

S. Borağan Aruoba

University of Maryland - Department of Economics

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

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Date Written: January 2010

Abstract

We sketch a framework for monitoring macroeconomic activity in real-time and push it in new directions. In particular, we focus not only on real activity, which has received most attention to date, but also on inflation and its interaction with real activity. As for the recent recession, we find that (1) it likely ended around July 2009; (2) its most extreme aspects concern a real activity decline that was unusually long but less unusually deep, and an inflation decline that was unusually deep but brief; and (3) its real activity and inflation interactions were strongly positive, consistent with an adverse demand shock.

Suggested Citation

Aruoba, S. Boragan and Diebold, Francis X., Real-Time Macroeconomic Monitoring: Real Activity, Inflation, and Interactions (January 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w15657, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1537775

S. Boragan Aruoba (Contact Author)

University of Maryland - Department of Economics ( email )

College Park, MD 20742
United States
301-405-3508 (Phone)
301-405-3542 (Fax)

Francis X. Diebold

University of Pennsylvania - Department of Economics ( email )

Ronald O. Perelman Center for Political Science
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Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297
United States
215-898-1507 (Phone)
215-573-4217 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.ssc.upenn.edu/~fdiebold/

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