Climate Shocks and Exports

12 Pages Posted: 1 Feb 2010

See all articles by Benjamin F. Jones

Benjamin F. Jones

Northwestern University; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Benjamin A. Olken

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER); Harvard University - Society of Fellows

Date Written: January 2010

Abstract

This paper uses international trade data to examine the effects of climate shocks on economic activity. We examine panel models relating the annual growth rate of a country's exports in a particular product category to the country's weather in that year. We find that a poor country being 1 degree Celsius warmer in a given year reduces the growth rate of that country's exports by between 2.0 and 5.7 percentage points, with no detectable effects in rich countries. We find negative effects of temperature on exports of both agricultural products and light manufacturing products, with little apparent effects on heavy industry or raw materials. The results confirm large negative effects of temperature on poor countries' economies and suggest that temperature affects a much wider range of economic activity than conventionally thought.

Suggested Citation

Jones, Benjamin F. and Olken, Benjamin A., Climate Shocks and Exports (January 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w15711. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1544761

Benjamin F. Jones (Contact Author)

Northwestern University ( email )

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Benjamin A. Olken

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) - Department of Economics ( email )

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National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

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Harvard University - Society of Fellows

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United States

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