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How Will Rebalancing Demand Change Production in the Asia Pacific?

28 Pages Posted: 31 Jan 2010  

Peter A. Petri

Brandeis University - Brandeis International Business School; Brandeis University - Department of Economics; East-West Center

Date Written: January 25, 2010

Abstract

Rebalancing expenditures among and within surplus and deficit countries has emerged as a key global policy priority. This paper examines the implications of rebalancing expenditure categories in 10 Asia Pacific economies for the structure of production. An aggressive rebalancing scenario is constructed (based on 2007 current account data, since more recent imbalances are smaller) and its detailed production implications are analyzed using a large international input-output system. The changes associated with eliminating excessive international imbalances are found to be modest relative to major expenditure categories in the Asia Pacific. Moreover, significant overlaps in the production induced by different types of expenditures dampen the output effects of shifts among them. This does not mean that rebalancing will be easy to accomplish - spending reallocations are politically difficult - but the need to "reinvent" Asia's growth model appears to be overstated.

Keywords: Rebalancing, Asia-Pacific, Global Imbalances, Input-Output Analysis, Structural Adjustment

JEL Classification: D57, F01, F42, O41

Suggested Citation

Petri, Peter A., How Will Rebalancing Demand Change Production in the Asia Pacific? (January 25, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1545096 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1545096

Peter Petri (Contact Author)

Brandeis University - Brandeis International Business School ( email )

Mailstop 32
Waltham, MA 02454-9110
United States

HOME PAGE: http://ppetri.com/

Brandeis University - Department of Economics

Waltham, MA 02454-9110
United States

HOME PAGE: http://ppetri.com/

East-West Center

1601 East-West Road
Honolulu, HI 96848
United States

HOME PAGE: http://ppetri.com/

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