Keynes’ Lower-Upper Bound Interval Approach to Probability
Posted: 3 Feb 2010 Last revised: 26 Apr 2010
Date Written: February 2, 2010
This paper shows how Keynes provided a complete mathematical structure for his system of probability, which he called “approximation”, in the A Treatise on Probability, 1921.Keynes used the standard concept of conditional probability to duplicate many of Boole's problems. It is also demonstrated that he provided a solid mathematical structure for his non linear, non additive decision theory approach. We conclude that Keynes should be recognized as the founder of the modern non additive approach to probability.
Keywords: non numerical probability, Keynes, Boole, Ramsay
JEL Classification: B16, C02, C10
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation