Keynes’ Lower-Upper Bound Interval Approach to Probability

Posted: 3 Feb 2010 Last revised: 26 Apr 2010

See all articles by Rogério Arthmar

Rogério Arthmar

Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills

Date Written: February 2, 2010

Abstract

This paper shows how Keynes provided a complete mathematical structure for his system of probability, which he called “approximation”, in the A Treatise on Probability, 1921.Keynes used the standard concept of conditional probability to duplicate many of Boole's problems. It is also demonstrated that he provided a solid mathematical structure for his non linear, non additive decision theory approach. We conclude that Keynes should be recognized as the founder of the modern non additive approach to probability.

Keywords: non numerical probability, Keynes, Boole, Ramsay

JEL Classification: B16, C02, C10

Suggested Citation

Arthmar, Rogério and Brady, Michael Emmett, Keynes’ Lower-Upper Bound Interval Approach to Probability (February 2, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1546726 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1546726

Rogério Arthmar (Contact Author)

Universidade Federal do Espirito Santo ( email )

Rua Fernando Ferrari 514
Bairro Goiabeiras
Vitória, Espírito Santo 59075-910
Brazil

HOME PAGE: http://www.ufes.br

Michael Emmett Brady

California State University, Dominguez Hills ( email )

1000 E. Victoria Street, Carson, CA
Carson, CA 90747
United States

Register to save articles to
your library

Register

Paper statistics

Downloads
400
rank
70,979
Abstract Views
2,271
PlumX Metrics