22 Pages Posted: 15 Feb 2010
Date Written: January 2010
Using data on the distribution of migrants from Africa, GDP growth forecasts for host countries, and after estimating remittance multipliers in recipient countries, this paper estimates the impact of the global economic crisis on African GDP via the remittance channel during 2009-2010. It forecasts remittance declines into African countries of between 3 and 14 percentage points, with migrants to Europe hardest hit while migrants within Africa relatively unaffected by the crisis. The estimated impact on GDP for relatively remittance-dependent countries is 2 percent for 2009, but will likely be short-lived, as host country income is projected to rise in 2010.
Keywords: Africa, Capital flows, Cross country analysis, Economic forecasting, Economic growth, Financial crisis, Global Financial Crisis 2008-2009, Migration, Workers remittances
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Barajas, Adolfo and Chami, Ralph and Fullenkamp, Connel and Garg, Anjali, The Global Financial Crisis and Workers' Remittances to Africa: What's the Damage? (January 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/24. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1552291