Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism

Massey, Cade, Joseph P. Simmons, and David A. Armor (2011), “Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism,” Psychological Science, 22 (February), 274-281.

9 Pages Posted: 13 Feb 2010 Last revised: 24 Aug 2012

See all articles by Cade Massey

Cade Massey

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

Joseph P. Simmons

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School

David A. Armor

San Diego State University

Date Written: February 8, 2010

Abstract

Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether it is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life’s most consequential decisions often feature both strong preferences and the opportunity to learn. We investigated these questions by collecting football predictions from National Football League fans during each week of the 2008 season. Despite accuracy incentives and extensive feedback, predictions about preferred teams remained optimistically biased through the entire season. Optimism was as strong after 4 months as it was after 4 weeks. We exploit variation in preferences and matchups to show that desirability fueled this optimistic bias.

Keywords: Judgment, Learning, Prediction, Preferences, Optimism

JEL Classification: D83, D84

Suggested Citation

Massey, Cade and Simmons, Joseph P. and Armor, David A., Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism (February 8, 2010). Massey, Cade, Joseph P. Simmons, and David A. Armor (2011), “Hope Over Experience: Desirability and the Persistence of Optimism,” Psychological Science, 22 (February), 274-281., Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1552394 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1552394

Cade Massey (Contact Author)

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3641 Locust Walk
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6365
United States

Joseph P. Simmons

University of Pennsylvania - The Wharton School ( email )

3733 Spruce Street
Philadelphia, PA 19104-6374
United States

David A. Armor

San Diego State University ( email )

San Diego, CA 92182-0763
United States

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