Does Nominal Devaluation Precede Real Devaluation in Flexible Exchange Rate Regime? A Case Study of Papua New Guinea

Business Review, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 3-17, 2009

Posted: 13 Feb 2010

See all articles by Ravinder Rena

Ravinder Rena

Papua New Guinea University of Technology; Polytechnic of Namibia; University of the Western Cape; North-West University; Papua New Guinea University of Technology

Date Written: December 10, 2009

Abstract

Economy can be pretentious by the progression of devaluation or depreciation of local currency either positively or negatively. The improvement in trade balance is considered as one of the significant and beneficial impacts occurring on account of devaluation by means of an increase in the volume of exports while lessening in the volume of imports. However, higher inflation would lead to expensive imports that offset the growth of economy resulting from increase in the exports. This reduces the effectiveness of devaluation in bringing down trade deficit. The benefits of devaluation are restricted where inflation severely hits the economy. Moreover, nominal devaluation improves the trade balance when it leads to real devaluation. The relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rates is explored in the present hypothesis. The study is a unique attempt in the case of Papua New Guinea as devaluation has always been a politically sensitive issue. In this paper investigation, regarding “whether nominal devaluation precedes the real devaluation or not” both in the long run as well as in short span of time is done. The order of integration has been found through Ng-Perron, whereas ARDL, Co-integration Johansen Test and DOLS are employed for long run correlations. The findings of the paper clearly indicate the fact that nominal devaluation not only does lead to real devaluation in long span of time but also in the short run. This scenario provides directions for policy-makers to take into consideration both positive and negative implications of devaluation in Papua New Guinea.

Keywords: Devaluation, Unit Root, Co-integration, Balance of Payments, Inflation, Exports

JEL Classification: F10, C20, C22

Suggested Citation

Rena, Ravinder, Does Nominal Devaluation Precede Real Devaluation in Flexible Exchange Rate Regime? A Case Study of Papua New Guinea (December 10, 2009). Business Review, Vol. 5, No. 4, pp. 3-17, 2009. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1552403

Ravinder Rena (Contact Author)

Papua New Guinea University of Technology ( email )

Private Mail Bag 411
Lae, Morobe 411
Papua New Guinea

HOME PAGE: http://www.unitech.ac.pg

Polytechnic of Namibia ( email )

13 Storch Street
Private Bag 13388
Windhoek, Khomas 13388
Namibia

HOME PAGE: http://www.polytechnic.edu.na

University of the Western Cape ( email )

Private Bag X 17
Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Scie
Bellville, Western Cape 7535
South Africa
0027219593624 (Phone)
0027219593201 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.uwc.ac.za

North-West University ( email )

Hoffman Street
Potchefstroom, 2520
South Africa

HOME PAGE: http://www.nwu.ac.za

Papua New Guinea University of Technology ( email )

Private Mail Bag 411
Lae, Morobe 411
Papua New Guinea

HOME PAGE: http://www.unitech.ac.pg

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