The Global Crisis and the Future of the Dollar: Toward Bretton Woods III?

Abstract

This paper investigates the U.S. dollar’s role as the international currency of choice as a key contributing factor in critical global developments that led to the crisis of 2007–09, and considers the future role of the dollar as the global economy emerges from that crisis. It is argued that the dollar is likely to retain its hegemonic status for a few more decades, but that U.S. spending powered by public rather than private debt would provide a more sustainable motor for global growth. In the process, the “Bretton Woods II” regime depicted by Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (2003) as sustainable despite featuring persistent U.S. current account deficits may turn into a “Bretton Woods III” regime that sees U.S. fiscal policy and public debt as “minding the store” in maintaining U.S. and global growth.

Keywords: Reserve Currency, Global Monetary Order, Global Financial Crisis

JEL Classification: E12, E61, E62, F02, F33