Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy

41 Pages Posted: 22 Feb 2010

See all articles by Gianni De Nicolo

Gianni De Nicolo

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School; CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute)

Marcella Lucchetta

Ca Foscari University of Venice

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: February 2010

Abstract

This paper presents a modeling framework that delivers joint forecasts of indicators of systemic real risk and systemic financial risk, as well as stress-tests of these indicators as impulse responses to structural shocks identified by standard macroeconomic and banking theory. This framework is implemented using large sets of quarterly time series of indicators of financial and real activity for the G-7 economies for the 1980Q1-2009Q3 period. We obtain two main results. First, there is evidence of out-of sample forecasting power for tail risk realizations of real activity for several countries, suggesting the usefulness of the model as a risk monitoring tool. Second, in all countries aggregate demand shocks are the main drivers of the real cycle, and bank credit demand shocks are the main drivers of the bank lending cycle. These results challenge the common wisdom that constraints in the aggregate supply of credit have been a key driver of the sharp downturn in real activity experienced by the G-7 economies in 2008Q4-2009Q1.

Suggested Citation

De Nicolo, Gianni and Lucchetta, Marcella, Systemic Risks and the Macroeconomy (February 2010). IMF Working Papers, Vol. , pp. 1-40, 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1555441

Gianni De Nicolo (Contact Author)

Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School ( email )

100 International Drive
Baltimore, MD 21202
United States
(410) 234-4507 (Phone)

CESifo (Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute) ( email )

Poschinger Str. 5
Munich, DE-81679
Germany

Marcella Lucchetta

Ca Foscari University of Venice ( email )

Venice
Italy

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