Simulation-Based Excess Return Model for Real Estate Development: A Practical Monte Carlo Simulation-Based Method for Quantitative Risk Management and Project Valuation for Real Estate Development Projects
David J. Gimpelevich
Mid-Market Securities, LLC
June 6, 2010
The Simulation-Based Excess Return Model (SERM) offers a simple, practical decision-making method for underwriting real estate development projects. It addresses the shortcomings of discounted cash flow modeling by taking into account the probabilistic distribution of outcomes and is based on realistic model of interaction of determining variables.
The Simulation-Based Excess Return Model addresses the limitations of the prevailing methodologies by: 1. Employing a stochastic risk assessment method for the discovery of the range of outcomes. 2. Explicitly addressing the interdependence of input variables. 3. Offering an objective risk premium metric for guidance in decision-making.
This is a revision and expansion of the original working paper as of June 6, 2010.
Number of Pages in PDF File: 22
Keywords: Real Estate Development, Monte Carlo Simulation, Stochastic Risk Management Modeling, Investment Returns Modeling, Project Valuation, Real Estate Underwriting, Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Real Options, Real Estate Pricing, Real Estate Appraisal
JEL Classification: C13, C15, C44, R32, R33, R39
Date posted: February 23, 2010 ; Last revised: October 13, 2010