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The Influence of Negative Emission Technologies and Technology Policies on the Optimal Climate Mitigation Portfolio

Climatic Change, 2012

24 Pages Posted: 1 Mar 2010 Last revised: 22 Apr 2016

Derek Lemoine

University of Arizona - Department of Economics

Sabine Fuss

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC); International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Jana Szolgayova

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics - Comenius University, Slovakia; International Institute of Systems Analysis, Austria

Michael Obersteiner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA); Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS)

Daniel M. Kammen

University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy

Date Written: May 3, 2011

Abstract

Combining policies to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with policies to reduce emissions could decrease CO2 concentrations faster than possible via natural processes. We model the optimal selection of a dynamic portfolio of abatement, research and development (R&D), and negative emission policies under an exogenous CO2 constraint and with stochastic technological change. We find that near-term abatement is not sensitive to the availability of R&D policies, but the anticipated availability of negative emission strategies can reduce the near-term abatement optimally undertaken to meet 2 degrees C temperature limits. Further, planning to deploy negative emission technologies shifts optimal R&D funding from "carbon-free" technologies into "emission intensity" technologies. Making negative emission strategies available enables an 80% reduction in the cost of keeping year 2100 CO2 concentrations near their current level. However, negative emission strategies are less important if the possibility of tipping points rules out using late-century net negative emissions to temporarily overshoot the CO2 constraint earlier in the century.

Keywords: Abatement, Air capture, BECCS, Carbon capture, Climate policy, Mitigation, Portfolio, R&D, Technological change, Tipping points

JEL Classification: O38, Q54, Q55

Suggested Citation

Lemoine, Derek and Fuss, Sabine and Szolgayova, Jana and Obersteiner, Michael and Kammen, Daniel M., The Influence of Negative Emission Technologies and Technology Policies on the Optimal Climate Mitigation Portfolio (May 3, 2011). Climatic Change, 2012. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1558744 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1558744

Derek Lemoine (Contact Author)

University of Arizona - Department of Economics ( email )

McClelland Hall
Tucson, AZ 85721-0108
United States

HOME PAGE: http://www.dereklemoine.com/

Sabine Fuss

Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) ( email )

Torgauer Straße 12-15
Berlin, 10829
Germany
49303385537224 (Phone)
303385537224 (Fax)

HOME PAGE: http://www.mcc-berlin.net

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, 2361
Austria

HOME PAGE: http://www.iiasa.ac.at

Jana Szolgayova

Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Mathematics, Physics and Informatics - Comenius University, Slovakia ( email )

Mlynská dolina
SK-842 48 Bratislava, 842 48
Slovakia

International Institute of Systems Analysis, Austria

United States

Michael Obersteiner

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ( email )

Schlossplatz 1
Laxenburg, A-2361
Austria

Institute for Advanced Studies (IHS) ( email )

Stumpergasse 56
Vienna A-1060
Austria

Daniel M. Kammen

University of California, Berkeley - The Richard & Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy ( email )

2607 Hearst Avenue
Berkeley, CA 94720-7320
United States

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