Predjudices About Bias (Report No. 85-3)

Abstract

Much recent research in the area of judgment and decision making has been dominated by documentation of ways in which people's intuitive thought processes can lead them astray. Like other psychological results that have cast doubt on people's abilities, these accounts have generated considerable controversy. From the set of criticisms that have been raised, a set of generic criticisms that could be raised is developed here. These include aspersions of methodological malpractice, advancement of alternative standards of optimality, and development of error theories showing the insensitivity of events to these kinds of problems. Considering these criticisms in general form offers some perspectives on the continuing debate, some guidance on how to improve its productivity, and some hypotheses for analyzing analogous controversies elsewhere in psychology

Keywords: bias, heuristic, biases, heuristics, judgment, probability, philosophy of science, biases