Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies

23 Pages Posted: 2 Mar 2010

See all articles by Leandro Medina

Leandro Medina

George Washington University - Department of Economics; International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department

Jordi Prat

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alun H. Thomas

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department

Date Written: February 2010

Abstract

This paper uses a modified version of the methodology used by the IMF's Consultative Group on Exchange Rate Issues (CGER) to calculate equilibrium current account balances (or ?norms?) for a sample of 33 emerging market economies. We find that the fundamental determinants of the equilibrium current account balances are similar to those identified by the CGER using a sample that also comprises advanced economies. However, the fiscal balance has a considerably stronger impact on current account norms for emerging markets. This paper also offers estimates for the equilibrium current account balances of eleven smaller emerging market economies that are not currently included in the country sample used by the CGER.

Keywords: Cross country analysis, Current account balances, Economic models, Emerging markets, Real effective exchange rates

Suggested Citation

Medina, Leandro and Prat, Jordi and Thomas, Alun, Current Account Balance Estimates for Emerging Market Economies (February 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/43, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1562411

Leandro Medina

George Washington University - Department of Economics ( email )

Monroe Hall, Suite 340
2115 G Street, NW
Washington, DC 20052
United States

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Western Hemisphere Department

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Jordi Prat

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Alun Thomas

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - European Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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