Structural Models in Real Time

36 Pages Posted: 15 Mar 2010

See all articles by Jaromír Beneš

Jaromír Beneš

International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada

Marianne Johnson

Independent

Troy Matheson

Government of New Zealand - Department of Economics

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department

Date Written: March 2010

Abstract

This paper outlines a simple approach for incorporating extraneous predictions into structural models. The method allows the forecaster to combine predictions derived from any source in a way that is consistent with the underlying structure of the model. The method is flexible enough that predictions can be up-weighted or down-weighted on a case-by-case basis. We illustrate the approach using a small quarterly structural and real-time data for the United States.

Keywords: Economic forecasting, Economic indicators, Economic models, Monetary policy

Suggested Citation

Beneš, Jaromír and Clinton, Kevin and Johnson, Marianne and Matheson, Troy and Laxton, Douglas, Structural Models in Real Time (March 2010). IMF Working Paper No. 10/56, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1569953

Jaromír Beneš (Contact Author)

International Monetary Fund (IMF) ( email )

700 19th Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20431
United States

Kevin Clinton

Government of Canada - Bank of Canada ( email )

234 Wellington Street
Ontario, Ottawa K1A 0G9
Canada
613-782-8766 (Phone)
613-782 7508 (Fax)

Marianne Johnson

Independent ( email )

Troy Matheson

Government of New Zealand - Department of Economics ( email )

2 The Terrace
P.O. Box 2498
Wellington
New Zealand

Douglas Laxton

International Monetary Fund (IMF) - Research Department ( email )

700 19th Street NW
Washington, DC 20431
United States

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