The Resilient Regional Labour Market? The US Case

Abstract

This article examines the ability of regional labour markets to rebound by growing the middle class or increasing wages. Using data on US metros, we identify regions that are transformative in terms of achieving a new equilibrium or reversing their path dependency. We then use discriminant analysis to identify the factors behind this resiliency. Regional resilience is rare, and changing a region's path is easier than achieving a new equilibrium. Among the most important factors behind regional transformation are the ability to attract immigrants, retain manufacturing, and innovate a high-tech economy. The diversity of outcomes suggests that a simple strong versus weak market dichotomy is insufficient to characterize regional resiliency, and a wide array of policies will be necessary.

Keywords: resilience, labour market, inequality, path dependence, O18