Retirement Expectations in the Netherlands

24 Pages Posted: 22 Mar 2010 Last revised: 2 Jan 2011

See all articles by Arthur van Soest

Arthur van Soest

Tilburg University; Netspar; RAND Corporation; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Luc Bissonnette

Université Laval

Jan H. M. Nelissen

Tilburg University, CentER; CentERdata

Date Written: November 1, 2009


We analyze expectations of the Dutch population of ages 25 and older concerning the future generosity of Dutch state and occupational pensions, the two main pillars of the Dutch pension system. Since the summer of 2006, monthly survey data were collected on the expectations of Dutch households concerning purchasing power of occupational pensions, eligibility and purchasing power of old age social security benefits, and the average retirement age ten or twenty years from now. We investigate how these expectations have changed over time and how they vary with socio-economic characteristics. Exploiting the fact that our data also cover 2008 and the first half of 2009, we also analyze the effect of the recent financial and economic crisis. We find significant differences in expectations of different socio-economic groups, mainly suggesting that groups who are probably better informed were also more pessimistic.

Keywords: subjective probabilities, old age social security, occupational pensions

JEL Classification: D84, H55, J26

Suggested Citation

van Soest, Arthur H. O. and van Soest, Arthur H. O. and Bissonnette, Luc and Nelissen, Jan H. M. and Nelissen, Jan H. M., Retirement Expectations in the Netherlands (November 1, 2009). Netspar Discussion Paper No. 11/2009-039, Available at SSRN: or

Arthur H. O. van Soest (Contact Author)


P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, 5000 LE

Tilburg University ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Tilburg, DC Noord-Brabant 5000 LE

RAND Corporation ( email )

P.O. Box 2138
1776 Main Street
Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
United States

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072

Luc Bissonnette

Université Laval ( email )

Université Laval, Pavillon J-A-DeSève, #2264
Québec, Quebec G1K 7P4 G1V0A6

Jan H. M. Nelissen

Tilburg University, CentER ( email )

P.O. Box 90153
Department of Economics
5000 LE Tilburg
+31 13 466 3259 (Phone)
+31 13 466 3066 (Fax)

CentERdata ( email )

PO Box 90153
Tilburg, NL 5000 LE


Do you have negative results from your research you’d like to share?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
PlumX Metrics