Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change

35 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2010

See all articles by Antonello D'Agostino

Antonello D'Agostino

European Stability Mechanism; Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland - Economic Analysis and Research Department

Luca Gambetti

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business (DEB)

Domenico Giannone

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: March 17, 2010

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to assess whether explicitly modeling structural change increases the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We produce real time out-of-sample forecasts for inflation, the unemployment rate and the interest rate using a Time-Varying Coefficients VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TV-VAR) for the US. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular for inflation the TV-VAR outperforms, in terms of mean square forecast error, all the competing models: fixed coefficients VARs, Time-Varying ARs and the naïve random walk model. These results are also shown to hold over the most recent period in which it has been hard to forecast inflation.

Keywords: Forecasting, Inflation, Stochastic Volatility, Time Varying Vector Autoregression

JEL Classification: C32, E37, E47

Suggested Citation

D'Agostino, Antonello and Gambetti, Luca and Giannone, Domenico, Macroeconomic Forecasting and Structural Change (March 17, 2010). ECB Working Paper No. 1167. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1574768

Antonello D'Agostino (Contact Author)

European Stability Mechanism ( email )

6a Circuit de la Foire Internationale
L-1347
Luxembourg

Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland - Economic Analysis and Research Department ( email )

Dame Street
P.O. Box 559
Dublin 2
Ireland

Luca Gambetti

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Department of Economics and Business (DEB) ( email )

Barcelona, 08005
Spain

Domenico Giannone

Federal Reserve Banks - Federal Reserve Bank of New York ( email )

33 Liberty Street
New York, NY 10045
United States

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

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