The October 1998 Crisis in Turkish-Syrian Relations: A Prospect Theory Approach

Abstract

This paper attempts to answer the question of what made the Turkish threats in the 1998 October crisis with Syria different from all others made over the last two decades; and what were the main reasons for Hafez Assad’s capitulation vis-à-vis Turkish demands. Using the prospect theory, this paper argues that it was not the changing balance-of-power or the deterring effect of the Turkish-Israeli cooperation that brought about Turkish resolve and Syrian capitulation at the end of the crisis, but Hafez Assad’s domestic policy constraints and health problems.

Keywords: Turkey, Syria, October 1998, Adana Accord, PKK, Prospect Theory