Analysis of Oil Export Dependency of MENA Countries: Drivers, Trends and Prospects

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyse how oil export dependencies of Middle East and North African (MENA) oil producers have evolved over the past two decades and to identify the main driving factors from an energy policy perspective. The paper expresses the oil export dependency of each economy in terms of a multiplicative identity that captures effective export price, export to primary oil supply ratio, oil dependency and oil export intensity of the country. Using the data for 1980-2006, the evolution in these factors is investigated for seven MENA countries and the influence of the above factors is decomposed using the Laspeyres index. The analysis shows that energy price and increasing energy intensity in the MENA countries have influenced the overall oil export dependency. Reducing the energy intensity can improve oil export revenue share to GDP by 5 to 10% in most of the countries while Iran can gain significantly by increasing its export volume.

Keywords: oil export dependency, MENA, decomposition analysis