The 1992 Canadian Constitutional Referendum: Using Financial Data to Assess Economic Consequences

Posted: 24 Jul 2010

See all articles by Pauline Shum Nolan

Pauline Shum Nolan

York University - Schulich School of Business

Date Written: November 26, 1995

Abstract

Throughout their campaign, proponents of the Charlottetown Accord warned of the financial disaster that would strike if the accord were rejected. Those opposed to it dismissed this claim as a scare tactic. This paper investigates if and how investors responded to new information regarding the probability of a YES vote during the campaign period. Four measures of this probability are constructed from opinion poll data. Based on evidence from the money and the stock markets, the analysis confirms that the proponents of the accord had indeed overestimated the adverse impact of a NO vote. Moreover, stock market participants might have processed poll information in a less sophisticated manner than expected.

Suggested Citation

Shum Nolan, Pauline, The 1992 Canadian Constitutional Referendum: Using Financial Data to Assess Economic Consequences (November 26, 1995). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1578995

Pauline Shum Nolan (Contact Author)

York University - Schulich School of Business ( email )

4700 Keele Street
Toronto, Ontario M3J 1P3
Canada

Do you have a job opening that you would like to promote on SSRN?

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
322
PlumX Metrics