The Relationship between Changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Real GDP Growth: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

Economics Bulletin, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 837-846, 2010

Posted: 28 Mar 2010 Last revised: 1 Apr 2010

Date Written: March 1, 2010

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to capture the time-varying effects of the relationship between changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) and economic growth. We use penalized regression splines to estimate the different point effects over time. Evidence from six European countries supports the idea that the elasticity of the ESI is time-varying.

Keywords: Economic Sentiment Indicator, Real GDP Growth, Thin Plate Regression Splines, Time-Varying Coefficient Model

JEL Classification: C, C5

Suggested Citation

Zanin, Luca, The Relationship between Changes in the Economic Sentiment Indicator and Real GDP Growth: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach (March 1, 2010). Economics Bulletin, Vol. 30, No. 1, pp. 837-846, 2010, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1579322

Here is the Coronavirus
related research on SSRN

Paper statistics

Abstract Views
284
PlumX Metrics