S&P 500 Returns Revisited

18 Pages Posted: 1 Apr 2010

See all articles by Oleg Kitov

Oleg Kitov

University of Warwick

Ivan Kitov

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics

Date Written: March 29, 2010

Abstract

The predictions of the S&P 500 returns made in 2007 have been tested and the underlying models amended. The period between 2003 and 2008 should be described by the dependence of the S&P 500 stock market index on real GDP because the population pyramid was highly inaccurate. The 2008 trough and 2009 rally are well predicted by the original model, however. The rally will end in March/April 2010 and the S&P 500 level will be decreasing into 2011. This prediction should validate the model.

Keywords: S&P 500, returns, prediction, population pyramid, GDP

JEL Classification: G1, D4, J1

Suggested Citation

Kitov, Oleg and Kitov, Ivan O., S&P 500 Returns Revisited (March 29, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1579956 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1579956

Oleg Kitov

University of Warwick ( email )

Gibbet Hill Rd.
Coventry, West Midlands CV4 8UW
United Kingdom

Ivan O. Kitov (Contact Author)

Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) - Institute for the Geospheres Dynamics ( email )

Leninsky prospect 38/1
Moscow, Moscow 119334
Russia

HOME PAGE: http://idg3.chph.ras.ru

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