Toward Equilibrium: Fluctuations in Candidate Support during Presidential Campaigns

Abstract

This paper takes a step towards a better understanding of the context within which campaign events influence public support for candidates in presidential general election campaigns. I revisit Holbrook’s (1996) hypothesis that public support tends to move toward the equilibrium (forecast). Holbrook tested the hypothesis for the 1984-92 campaigns (six conventions, seven debates). I extend the analysis to 1964-2008 for the conventions and 1976-2008 for the debates (24 conventions, 22 debates). In addition, I measure the impact of systematic and unsystematic campaign effects for 1948-2008 using a variation of Campbell’s (2008) approach.