What are the Odds? A Measure of the Small Sample Problems
12 Pages Posted: 30 Mar 2010 Last revised: 16 Nov 2011
Date Written: September 20, 2010
Decisions on whether to retain recent hires are often limited by small sample size. We empirically assess whether uncertainty in employee retention decisions could be significantly reduced by increasing sample size. Using a unique data set from professional tennis matches to measure small sample outcomes, we find little difference in giving three chances, relative to five chances, in determining innate ability.
Keywords: Small Sample Bias, Employment, Tennis
JEL Classification: L23, J21, D21, L83
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation