Estimation of a Dynamic Model of Weight

45 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2010

See all articles by Shu Wen Ng

Shu Wen Ng

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill

Edward C. Norton

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor

David K. Guilkey

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics

Barry M. Popkin

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Carolina Population Center

Date Written: April 2010

Abstract

The ongoing debate about the economic causes of obesity has focused on the changing relative prices of diet and exercise. This paper uses a model that explicitly includes time and spatially varying community-level urbanicity and price measures as instruments to obtain statistically correct measures for the endogenous effects of diet, physical activity, drinking, and smoking on weight. We apply a dynamic panel system GMM estimation model to longitudinal (1991-2006) data from China to model weight and find that among adult men in China, about 6.1% of weight gain was due to declines in physical activity and 2.9-3.8% was due to dietary changes over this period. In the long run, physical activity can account for around 6.9% of weight gain, while diet can account for 3.2-4.2% of weight gain.

Suggested Citation

Ng, Shu Wen and Norton, Edward C. and Guilkey, David K. and Popkin, Barry M., Estimation of a Dynamic Model of Weight (April 2010). NBER Working Paper No. w15864. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1583805

Shu Wen Ng (Contact Author)

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill ( email )

102 Ridge Road
Chapel Hill, NC NC 27514
United States

Edward C. Norton

University of Michigan at Ann Arbor ( email )

500 S. State Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109
United States

David K. Guilkey

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Department of Economics ( email )

Chapel Hill, NC 27599
United States
919-966-2385 (Phone)
919-966-4986 (Fax)

Barry M. Popkin

University of North Carolina (UNC) at Chapel Hill - Carolina Population Center ( email )

CB# 8120, University Square
123 West Franklin St.
Chapel Hill, 27599-2524
United States

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