Risk Management

Abstract

This note describes how to move beyond the appraisal of risk toward improving the risk characteristics of alternatives that the world offers us. It considers ways to create value and reduce risk through wise management. One way is to obtain better information; methods of valuing perfect and imperfect information are provided. Another way is to control outcomes and critical variables, and the note suggests how a tornado diagram may be useful in identifying what those significant variables and outcomes may be. It then describes various actions that serve to shift the risk profile favorably, to cut off the downside, and to focus the probability into the center.

Keywords: decision analysis, risk analysis, sensitivity analysis, diverse protagonist, gender (female protagonist)