Download This PaperProbability Assessment Exercise Global
6 Pages Posted: 5 Apr 2010
Abstract
The exercise consists of two parts: (1) individual assessments, based on your private knowledge only and (2) group assessments, in which your team pools its knowledge and develops a consensus forecast. The 10 uncertain quantities whose continuous probability distributions are to be assessed are described in Exhibit 1. In the individual questionnaire (Exhibit 2), you are asked to assess five values for each of the 10 probability distributions that determine the indicated bins of probability.
Keywords: probability
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation
Hild, Mathias, Probability Assessment Exercise Global. Darden Case No. UVA-QA-0711, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1584547 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1584547
Mathias Hild (Contact Author)
University of Virginia - Darden School of Business ( email )
P.O. Box 6550
Charlottesville, VA 22906-6550
United States
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