Estimation of Jump Tails
48 Pages Posted: 14 Apr 2010 Last revised: 10 Jun 2011
Date Written: June 2, 2011
We propose a new and flexible non-parametric framework for estimating the jump tails of Itô semimartingale processes. The approach is based on a relatively simple-to-implement set of estimating equations associated with the compensator for the jump measure, or its "intensity", that only utilizes the weak assumption of regular variation in the jump tails, along with in-fill asymptotic arguments for uniquely identifying the \large" jumps from the data. The estimation allows for very general dynamic dependencies in the jump tails, and does not restrict the continuous part of the process and the temporal variation in the stochastic volatility. On implementing the new estimation procedure with actual high-frequency data for the S&P 500 aggregate market portfolio, we find strong evidence for richer and more complex dynamic dependencies in the jump tails than hitherto entertained in the literature.
Keywords: Extreme events, jumps, high-frequency data, jump tails, non-parametric estimation, stochastic volatility
JEL Classification: C13, C14, G10, G12
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