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Consumption Tilting, Habit Persistence and Precautionary Savings: Are They a New Hope for Current Account Approach?

24 Pages Posted: 19 Apr 2010 Last revised: 25 May 2011

Emerson Fernandes Marçal

Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV; Mackenzie Presbyterian University

Wagner Oliveira Monteiro

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration

Date Written: April 18, 2010

Abstract

This paper aims to test the current account approach. Four variants of the model are analyzed. The first variant consists of the traditional model due to Sachs [SACHS, J. (1982): "The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 84, 147-159.].The second variant were proposed by Otto [Otto, G. (1992): "Testing a Present-Value Model of the Current Account: Evidence from the US and Canadian Time Series" Journal of International Money and Finance, 11, 414-430.]. In the second variant the representative agent adjust her consumption not proportionally to change in permanent income and tilts consumption to present or towards future. The third variant the representative has habit persistence but consumes just her permanent income and does not obtain utility from government goods.[Gruber, J. W. (2004): "A Present Value Test of Habits and the Current Account" Journal of Monetary Economics, 51, 1495-1507.] The fourth variant of the current account approach the representative agent has a precautionary motive to save. [Ghosh, A., and J. D. Ostry (1997): "Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Precautionary Saving and the Current Account," Journal of Monetary Economics, 40, 121-139.]. The full implications of the variant of the current account approach with precautionary saving are not rejected for some countries (Uruguay, Canada, Sweden, Japan and New Zealand). The second variant is not rejected for Sweden. The long run implications of consumption tilting model is not rejected for United States. The full implications for all others variants were rejected and the main reason to explain this rejection is that the current account series seems to have a unit root. The analyzed countries are United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Korea, Brazil, Uruguay, Canada, Sweden, Japan, New Zealand and Ireland for the period of 1947-2009 using annual data.

Keywords: Current account approach, cointegration, rational expectation model

JEL Classification: F41, C32, F32

Suggested Citation

Marçal, Emerson Fernandes and Monteiro, Wagner Oliveira, Consumption Tilting, Habit Persistence and Precautionary Savings: Are They a New Hope for Current Account Approach? (April 18, 2010). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1592020 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1592020

Emerson Marçal (Contact Author)

Sao Paulo School of Economics - FGV ( email )

Rua Itapeva 286 10 andar
São Paulo, São Paulo 01332-000
Brazil
551137993382 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://cemap.fgv.br/en/emerson-marcal-en

Mackenzie Presbyterian University ( email )

Rua da Consolação 920
Sala 213
01302-907 Sao Paulo, São Paulo 010302907
Brazil
55-11-21148268 (Phone)

HOME PAGE: http://www.mackenzie.br/stricto_administracao_empresas.html

Wagner Monteiro

Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGV) - Sao Paulo School of Business Administration ( email )

Sao Paulo
Brazil

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