Multifactor Risk Loadings and Abnormal Returns Under Uncertainty and Learning

34 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2010 Last revised: 14 Jan 2014

See all articles by Simone Salotti

Simone Salotti

Oxford Brookes University

Carmine Trecroci

University of Brescia

Date Written: January 2014


We explore the time variation of factor loadings and abnormal returns in the context of a four-factor model. Our methodology, based on an application of the Kalman filter and on endogenous uncertainty, overcomes several limitations of competing approaches used in the literature. Besides taking learning into account, it does not rely on any conditioning information, and it only imposes minimal assumptions on the time variation of the parameters. Our estimates capture both short- and long-term fluctuations of risk loadings and abnormal returns, also showing marked variation across US industry portfolios. The results from mean-variance spanning tests indicate that our baseline model yields accurate predictions and can therefore improve pricing and performance measurement.

Keywords: Multifactor Models, Time-Varying Alphas, Time-Varying Betas

JEL Classification: G12, G31, C51

Suggested Citation

Salotti, Simone and Trecroci, Carmine, Multifactor Risk Loadings and Abnormal Returns Under Uncertainty and Learning (January 2014). Available at SSRN: or

Simone Salotti

Oxford Brookes University ( email )

United Kingdom


Carmine Trecroci (Contact Author)

University of Brescia ( email )

Via San Faustino 74B
Brescia, 25122

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