*Managing Forests, Livestock, and Crops Under Global Warming: A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Land Use Changes in Africa

20 Pages Posted: 3 May 2010

See all articles by S. Niggol Seo

S. Niggol Seo

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies

Abstract

This paper examines potential land use changes in Africa under climate change by building an integrated model of crop management, animal husbandry, and forestry. Using micro-level decisions from around 9000 household surveys in 11 countries, we analyze the choice of land types across the landscape with a multinomial discrete choice model. The choices and future adaptation measures are analyzed as a mosaic based on the typology of Agro-Ecological Zones. The results indicate that if climate becomes hotter and drier, Africa will adapt by increasing a joint production of crops and animals, especially in the lowland savannahs. On the other hand, if climate becomes wetter, it will switch more to forests, either with crops or with both crops and livestock, especially in the mid and high elevation humid zones. Forestry will play a significant role in adaptation when a substantial increase in precipitation makes animal husbandry an unattractive alternative.

Suggested Citation

Seo, S. Niggol, *Managing Forests, Livestock, and Crops Under Global Warming: A Micro-Econometric Analysis of Land Use Changes in Africa. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 54, Issue 2, pp. 239-258, April 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1597433 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8489.2010.00487.x

S. Niggol Seo (Contact Author)

Muaebak Institute of Global Warming Studies ( email )

Seorim-dong
Gwanak-gu
Seoul
Korea, Republic of (South Korea)

HOME PAGE: http://www.muaebakinstitute.org/s.niggol-seo.html

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