The Group Size and Loyalty of Football Fans: A Two-Stage Estimation Procedure to Compare Customer Potential Across Teams

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), Forthcoming

36 Pages Posted: 6 May 2010 Last revised: 22 May 2012

See all articles by Leif Brandes

Leif Brandes

University of Lucerne

Egon P. Franck

University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW)

Philipp Theiler

University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW)

Date Written: May 3, 2010

Abstract

This paper presents estimation results on the size and loyalty of sport teams’ supporter groups in professional German football. Based on a novel two-stage estimation procedure, we find clear evidence for heterogeneity across teams. In a first stage, a random utility model for a representative consumer is modeled and fitted to more than 1,700 matches over the seasons 1996−2001. In a second-step, attendance probabilities are predicted for the seasons 2002−2003 to estimate group sizes. A team’s group size is positively correlated with its memberships (ˆρ =0.61, p<0.01), fan clubs (ˆρ =0.59, p<0.01), and merchandising revenues (ˆρ =0.49, p<0.05). Noteworthy, no similar correlations can be found for a team’s hometown population which has been the standard measure for market size in applied work so far.

Keywords: Group size, Random utility model, soccer, Ticket demand

JEL Classification: D12, C25, L83

Suggested Citation

Brandes, Leif and Franck, Egon P. and Theiler, Philipp, The Group Size and Loyalty of Football Fans: A Two-Stage Estimation Procedure to Compare Customer Potential Across Teams (May 3, 2010). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (Series A), Forthcoming, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1599591 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1599591

Leif Brandes (Contact Author)

University of Lucerne ( email )

Lucerne
Switzerland

Egon P. Franck

University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW) ( email )

Plattenstrasse 14
Zurich 8032
Switzerland
+41 1 634 28 45 (Phone)

Philipp Theiler

University of Zurich - Department of Business Administration (IBW) ( email )

Hottingerstrasse 10
Plattenstrasse 14
Zurich, 8032
Switzerland

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