Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition

65 Pages Posted: 7 May 2010 Last revised: 31 Jan 2015

Peter Arcidiacono

Duke University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Patrick J. Bayer

Duke University - Department of Economics; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

Jason R. Blevins

Ohio State University (OSU) - Economics

Paul B. Ellickson

University of Rochester - Simon Business School

Multiple version iconThere are 2 versions of this paper

Date Written: January 28, 2015

Abstract

This paper develops a dynamic model of retail competition and uses it to study the impact of the expansion of a new national competitor on the structure of urban markets. In order to accommodate substantial heterogeneity (both observed and unobserved) across agents and markets, the paper first develops a general framework for estimating and solving dynamic discrete choice models in continuous time that is computationally light and readily applicable to dynamic games. In the proposed framework, players face a standard dynamic discrete choice problem at decision times that occur stochastically. The resulting stochastic-sequential structure naturally admits the use of CCP methods for estimation and makes it possible to compute counterfactual simulations for relatively high-dimensional games. The model and method are applied to the retail grocery industry, into which Wal-Mart began rapidly expanding in the early 1990s, eventually attaining a dominant position. We find that Wal-Mart’s expansion into groceries came mostly at the expense of the large incumbent supermarket chains, rather than the single-store outlets that bore the brunt of its earlier conquest of the broader general merchandise sector. Instead, we find that independent grocers actually thrive when Wal-Mart enters, leading to an overall reduction in market concentration. These competitive effects are strongest in larger markets and those into which Wal-Mart expanded most rapidly, suggesting a diminishing role of scale and a greater emphasis on differentiation in this previously mature industry.

Keywords: Dynamic Discrete Choice, Dynamic Discrete Games, Continuous Time

JEL Classification: C57, C35, L11, L13, L81

Suggested Citation

Arcidiacono, Peter and Bayer, Patrick J. and Blevins, Jason R. and Ellickson, Paul B., Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition (January 28, 2015). Economic Research Initiatives at Duke (ERID) Working Paper No. 50. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1601350 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1601350

Peter Arcidiacono

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) ( email )

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Patrick J. Bayer (Contact Author)

Duke University - Department of Economics ( email )

213 Social Sciences Building
Box 90097
Durham, NC 27708-0204
United States

National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

1050 Massachusetts Avenue
Cambridge, MA 02138
United States

Jason R. Blevins

Ohio State University (OSU) - Economics ( email )

Columbus, OH 43210-1172
United States

HOME PAGE: http://jblevins.org/

Paul B. Ellickson

University of Rochester - Simon Business School ( email )

Rochester, NY 14627
United States

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