International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

16 Pages Posted: 10 May 2010

See all articles by Markus Brückner

Markus Brückner

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Antonio Ciccone

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences; Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR); Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

Abstract

To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

Suggested Citation

Brückner, Markus and Ciccone, Antonio, International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Economic Journal, Vol. 120, No. 544, pp. 519-534, May 2010. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1601549 or http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0297.2010.02353.x

Markus Brückner

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

Antonio Ciccone (Contact Author)

Universitat Pompeu Fabra - Faculty of Economic and Business Sciences ( email )

Ramon Trias Fargas 25-27
Barcelona, 08005
Spain
+34 93 542 1669 (Phone)
+34 93 542 1746 (Fax)

Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)

London
United Kingdom

Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)

P.O. Box 7240
Bonn, D-53072
Germany

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