Exports and Jobs: The Case of Japan, 1975-2006
Yokohama National Univ. Working Paper No. 294
36 Pages Posted: 12 May 2010 Last revised: 14 Apr 2011
Date Written: April 5, 2011
This paper asks how much employment is created by increasing goods and services exports and how the export dependence of employment has changed over time. Using the newly developed Japanese input–output table for 1975–2006, this paper estimates the effect of exports on an industry's employment (i.e., direct effect) and the effect on other industries' employment (i.e., indirect effect). One of our major findings is that the magnitude of the indirect effect exceeded that of the direct effect over almost the entire period. This implies that more than half of the effects of exports appeared through intra-industry linkages. We also found the indirect effect of goods exports is not limited to goods industries. As a result, the increases in the export dependence of employment are not limited to major Japanese export-oriented industries such as electrical machinery, motor vehicles, and general machinery. In identifying the potential risks of negative external shocks, it is important for policy makers to estimate how much employment is indirectly as well as directly dependent on exports.
Keywords: Goods Exports, Services Exports, Employment, Intra-industry Linkages, Japan
JEL Classification: F16, F14
Suggested Citation: Suggested Citation