The Impact of Water Supply Variability on Treaty Cooperation between International Bilateral River Basin Riparian States

44 Pages Posted: 20 Apr 2016

See all articles by Ariel Dinar

Ariel Dinar

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department

Brian Blankespoor

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG)

Shlomi Dinar

Johns Hopkins University

Pradeep Kulukurasuriya

affiliation not provided to SSRN

Date Written: May 1, 2010

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate change is anticipated to change the variability of water supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies have focused mainly on water scarcity, measured in terms of mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water variability measure used here captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability over periods of 30 and 100 years. The analysis used economic and international relations data to identify incentives for international cooperation in addressing water supply variability. The authors find that small-to-moderate increases in variability create an impetus for cooperation, although large increases in variability would reduce incentives for treaty cooperation. Stronger diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation, while uneven economic power inhibits cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation across the basin riparians. The findings have policy implications in the context of preparedness for impacts of climate change on the water sector.

Keywords: Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions, Water and Industry, Town Water Supply and Sanitation, Drought Management, Common Property Resource Development

Suggested Citation

Dinar, Ariel and Blankespoor, Brian and Dinar, Shlomi and Kulukurasuriya, Pradeep, The Impact of Water Supply Variability on Treaty Cooperation between International Bilateral River Basin Riparian States (May 1, 2010). World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 5307. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=1604999

Ariel Dinar (Contact Author)

World Bank - Agriculture and Rural Development Department ( email )

1818 H Street, N.W.
Washington, DC 20433
United States
202-473-0434 (Phone)

Brian Blankespoor

World Bank - Development Research Group (DECRG) ( email )

1818 H Street, NW
Washington, DC 20433
United States

HOME PAGE: http://https://sites.google.com/site/decrgbrianblankespoor/

Shlomi Dinar

Johns Hopkins University ( email )

Baltimore, MD 21218
United States

Pradeep Kulukurasuriya

affiliation not provided to SSRN

No Address Available

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